3rd December 2008

Two and Two Make Five

There must have been an almost universal cheer from secondary teachers when Ed Balls made the announcement that the Key Stage 3 SATs were to be scrapped. We all know about the marking fiasco with the American firm EDS, but there is another intriguing aspect to the scrapping that has been little commented on. This emerges when one reads the latest DCSF advice on target setting for schools and the scrapping of KS3 targets for the immediate future. Something was always going to have to give in this respect, because of the mathematical muddle produced by the educational brightest and best at the DCSF.

Let me explain. You will all know that the average progress expected for a pupil/student is half a level per year, and therefore, average progress for a pupil/student is one level every 2 years. Key Stage 2 consists of 4 year groups and so 2 levels' progress makes perfect sense in terms of one level's progress every 2 years, i.e. on average from Level 2 to level 4, although progress from 2a to 4c is hardly 2 levels' progress.

However, earlier this year, the DCSF suddenly came up with new targets for secondary schools that entailed 2 levels' progress in each of Key Stages 3 and 4. Now KS3 consists of 3 years and KS4 of 2 years — i.e. the normally expected rate of progress would be 1.5 levels and 1 level respectively.

There you have an interesting mathematical conundrum that does not seem to have occurred to the DCSF. According to their 'maths', rates of progress would have to increase by 50% in KS3 and double in KS4, compared with KS2. This is, of course, a nonsense, but then we are all very used to the Alice in Wonderland world that is the DCSF. In the real world where the rest of us live, 2 and 2 do not make 5, or in other words, half a level per year over 2 years does not equal 2 levels.

This month's competition from Ramon: Does the failure of those in senior positions to point out when the emperor's data-rich clothing is a 3-card trick, stem from innumeracy or cowardice? Answers on a postcard, including a suitable comment, to Leicester NUT.


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